Dear Readers, I am happy to share with you my results!
In last post I told about my plans to lower number of platforms I work with. After one month I am even more convenient that this is a right decision.
Traditionally I start with an overview of investments in Euro.
|Platform||XIRR||Change from Prev Month||Risk Adjusted XIRR||Change from Prev Month|
|Bondora||23.25 %||0.15 %||6.9 %||+0.2 %|
|in that, Bondora “Safe Portfolio”||27,6 %||-0.2%||16.1 %||-1%|
|Omaraha||20 %||+1%||16.1 %||+0,4 %|
* XIRR – Return of investments calculated by me, not by platform. Deposited, but not invested money makes negative impact to XIRR
** Risk Adjusted XIRR – XIRR after write off part of overdue and defaulted loan
COMMENTS on Euro based investments
Bondora. Few weeks of March I was thinking “Wow, Bondora has changed and will start correcting mistakes”. Unfortunately, that was as usual short period 🙂 Last week Bondora presented changes in early collection. By now, they send each loan do Collection agency after 7 day of overdue. Cost of collection is ~15% of recovered amount. Cost to be paid by Investors.
If I look on loans that marked 7 day overdue (at some moment borrower hold payment for week), I see that depending on country and borrower profile, from 20% to 74% of such loans are not defaulting. Bollow is example per country, AA-D rated loans. In Estonia over 2000 loans have been in 7 day overdue, 64% from that still not defaulted. 54% in Finland.
If you invest in Estonia only or you invest in Bondora AA-A rating, over 45%-75% of ‘alarms’ are false. But now Investors will need to pay for such false alarms. Even if Investor invest in high rated Finish loans number of false alarms is high.
Having in mind level of Bondora statisticians, I am sure it was possible to make analytical model that will send loan to Collection based on probability of default depending on country, rating, maturity etc. I think they know that some Borrowers need to get call after 2 days of default. I think they know much more. I do not think for first call Collector must be involved and it must be not Bondora person calling. I do not think for first call Investors money should be used. Instead of that, Bondora selected simple road.
That may be is good for those who using Portfolio manager. They will get 1-2% lower, but more stable return (lower as money will be paid for collection, more stable as recovery in Finland and Spain will be a bit better). So 8-10% yearly return is quite possible, but then such users may think about other more known and stable platforms in old Europe.
For every investor who was doing manual selection of loans, avoiding risky loans, innovation will cost.
For me this means bigger than average loses. I was looking inaccurate, but paying borrowers. Now I will simply waste money on collection. That will be 2-5% lower return. My risk adjusted return at Bondora is lower than 10%. I cannot accept additional loses.
More important, I cannot accept, when platform is changing rules not only for new, but also for mature loans, for something what was agreed before. If I know about coming change, I will never buy what I bought before.
I stop following what Bondora will do, I do not like to waste my time and I withdraw all my funds from Bondora.
Omaraha. All stable and as expected. I am still happy.
FellowFinance. I am closing my account there. Reason – decreased interest rates and less active secondary market. If you are ok with 10-14% return – FellowFinance may be still nice place for you to place part of your investments.
Twino. Twino “rollback” own decision to lower interest rate after they see that 10% interest loans are not so much interesting for Investors. Now most of loans are coming with 12% interest. I was planning to use Twino for short term investment, and this period almost done. I got over 12% ROI with small amount of time to manage investments. That is fine – work done. I continue withdraw.
Investments in crypro currencies and projects
|Platform||XIRR||Risk Adjusted XIRR||Change from Prev Month||XIRR
|BTCJAM||4 %||+2%||+52.8% (+9.19%)|
|“Safe portfolio” at BTCJAM||+20%||-3.6%||+46.2%(-7%)|
|NXT coins and Assets||—||—||—||—|
|SCRT coins||+184%||44 %||-6%|
*** XIRR in Euro – XIRR when deposits counted in Euro and price of BTC_today =[CurrentBTCPrice+ AveragePriceWhatIBoughtBTC]/2
|Risk Adjusted XIRR in BTC||Risk Adjusted XIRR
|Used BTC Price|
|TOTAL INVESTMENTS into crypto projects||-28 %(7%)
|+6%(0%)||410$*0.95 (5% discount)|
BTCPOP: My results are slowly better, mainly because of more serious check of borrower before I do investments. I repeat – BTCPOP is full of suspicious borrowers, suspicious groups of related borrowers and administration decided not to block them. I am thinking – big big mistake. Last week there were (are) number of problems with deposits and withdraw. May be as compensation, I got nice dividends on POP shares. POP have added SCRT as allowed altcoin to secure loans. I can transfer my SCRT to POP and get much cheaper loan. That was nice news in March.
BTCJAM. All is quite ok. I do not invest a lot, I am waiting to see how new loans will perform. I hope very much that JAM will work better in collection. This month I was waiting much worst results, and now I am quite happy to see positive movements in my return at JAM.
NXT and NXT Assets. I decided move out from NXT assets. I do not have time to manage portfolio and plan to use my time with better return. I will use NXT coin in trading.
SCRT coin. Still my very profitable active. Coin is listed on BTCPOP now. Coin survived via several dumps on Bittrex. Coin is listed at Yobit and Bittrex. In my opinion all prices below 3ksat are low.
XYZ platform have some issues, I do not plan to grow my portfolio and write about it.
Instead of that, I plan to start new separate review on Trading. I was concentrating on altcoin trading more seriously and settled separate accounts on Poloniex and Bittrex for that. So, each month I will do overview of my trading results. For those who plan to follow me and are new in trading, I recommend first to look that short video (recommended for me by my old and much more experienced colleague Jarmo):
And for final – a short theory for discussion. 🙂 Few days ago in Bondora fellows group on Facebook I found a post from young startup. They speak about “…a peer to peer mobile application which will provide a platform to facilitate microlending”. I told that idea of p2p microfinancing is died and proposed them to look for better ideas. And I wonder that nobody replied or was willing to discuss. I was so stupid, strict in wording and unpolite? Or today everibody agrees with what I said? 🙂
Thank you for your comments!
p.s. Just now I noticed that JAM collection purchased several defaulted loans. Nice work – I think next month results will get an positive impact!