Portfolio Overview: April 2016 (#5)

Dear Readers, I am happy to share with you my results!

In last post I told about my plans to lower number of platforms I work with. After one month I am even more convenient that this is a right decision.

Traditionally I start with an overview of investments in Euro.

EURO investments

Platform XIRR Change from Prev Month Risk Adjusted XIRR Change from Prev Month
Bondora 23.25 % 0.15 % 6.9 % +0.2 %
in that, Bondora “Safe Portfolio” 27,6 % -0.2% 16.1 % -1%
Omaraha 20 % +1% 16.1 % +0,4 %
FellowFinance 10 % -3%
TWINO 12.9% +1.2% 12.9% +1.2%

* XIRR – Return of investments calculated by me, not by platform. Deposited, but not invested money makes negative impact to XIRR
** Risk Adjusted XIRR – XIRR after write off part of overdue and defaulted loan

COMMENTS on Euro based investments

Bondora.  Few weeks of March I was thinking “Wow, Bondora has changed and will start correcting mistakes”. Unfortunately, that was as usual short period 🙂 Last week Bondora presented changes in early collection. By now, they send each loan do Collection agency after 7 day of overdue. Cost of collection is ~15% of recovered amount. Cost to be paid by Investors.

If I look on loans that marked 7 day overdue (at some moment borrower hold payment for week),  I see that  depending on country and borrower profile, from 20% to 74% of such loans are not defaulting. Bollow is example per country, AA-D rated loans. In Estonia over 2000 loans have been in 7 day overdue, 64% from that still not  defaulted. 54% in Finland.

dca

If you invest in Estonia only or you invest in Bondora AA-A rating, over 45%-75% of ‘alarms’ are false. But now Investors will need to pay for such false alarms. Even if Investor invest in high rated Finish loans number of false alarms is high.

Having in mind level of Bondora statisticians, I am sure it was possible to make analytical model that will send loan to Collection based on probability of default depending on country, rating, maturity etc.  I think they know that some Borrowers need to get call after 2 days of default. I think they know much more. I do not think for first call Collector must be involved and it must be not Bondora person calling. I do not think for first call Investors money should be used. Instead of that, Bondora selected simple road.

That may be is good for those who using Portfolio manager. They will get 1-2% lower, but more stable return (lower as money will be paid for collection, more stable as recovery in Finland and Spain will be a bit better). So 8-10% yearly return is quite possible, but then such users may think about other more known and stable platforms in old Europe.

For every investor who was doing manual selection of loans,  avoiding risky loans, innovation will cost.

For me this means bigger than average loses. I was looking inaccurate, but paying borrowers. Now I will simply waste money on collection. That will be  2-5% lower return. My risk adjusted return at Bondora is lower than 10%. I cannot accept additional loses.

More important, I cannot accept, when platform is changing rules not only for new, but also for mature loans, for something what was agreed before. If I know about coming change, I will never buy what I bought before.

I stop following what Bondora will do, I do not like to waste my time and I withdraw all my funds from Bondora.

Omaraha.  All stable and as expected. I am still happy.

FellowFinance.  I am closing my account there. Reason – decreased interest rates and less active secondary market. If you are ok with 10-14% return – FellowFinance may be still nice place for you to place part of your investments.

Twino.  Twino “rollback” own decision to lower interest rate after they see that 10% interest loans are not so much interesting for Investors. Now most of loans are coming with 12% interest. I was planning to use Twino for short term investment, and this period almost done. I got over 12% ROI with small amount of time to manage investments. That is fine – work done. I continue withdraw.

Investments in crypro currencies and projects

My return:

Platform XIRR Risk Adjusted XIRR Change from Prev Month XIRR
in Euro
BTCPOP 12% -33.9 % 7%
Loanbase 41% 41% 0% 0%
BTCJAM 4 % +2% +52.8% (+9.19%)
“Safe portfolio” at BTCJAM +20% -3.6% +46.2%(-7%)
NXT coins and Assets  —
SCRT coins +184% 44 %  -6%
XYZ —- —-  —

*** XIRR in Euro – XIRR when deposits counted in Euro and price of BTC_today =[CurrentBTCPrice+ AveragePriceWhatIBoughtBTC]/2

Risk Adjusted XIRR in BTC Risk Adjusted XIRR
in Euro
 Used BTC Price
TOTAL INVESTMENTS into crypto projects -28 %(7%)

 

+6%(0%)  410$*0.95 (5% discount)

COMMENTS

BTCPOP: My results are slowly better, mainly because of more serious check of borrower before I do investments.  I repeat – BTCPOP is full of suspicious borrowers, suspicious groups of related borrowers and administration decided not to block them. I am thinking – big big mistake. Last week there were (are) number of problems with deposits and withdraw. May be as compensation, I got nice dividends on POP shares. POP have added SCRT as allowed altcoin to secure loans. I can transfer my SCRT to POP and get much cheaper loan. That was nice news in March.

BTCJAM. All is quite ok. I do not invest a lot, I am waiting to see how new loans will perform. I hope very much that JAM will work better in collection. This month I was waiting much worst results, and now I am quite happy to see positive movements in my return at JAM.

Loanbase.  I have small portfolio at Loanbase and investing only into known/returning borrowers. I think that is key of positive return there.

NXT and NXT Assets. I decided move out from NXT assets. I do not have time to manage portfolio and plan to use my time with better return. I will use NXT coin in trading.

SCRT coin. Still my very profitable active. Coin is listed on BTCPOP now. Coin survived via several dumps on Bittrex. Coin is listed at Yobit and Bittrex.  In my opinion all prices below 3ksat are low.

XYZ platform have some issues, I do not plan to grow my portfolio and write about it.

Instead of that, I plan to start new separate review on Trading. I was concentrating on altcoin trading more seriously and settled separate accounts on Poloniex and Bittrex for that. So, each month I will do overview of my trading results. For those who plan to follow me and are new in trading, I recommend first to look that short video (recommended for me by my old and much more experienced colleague Jarmo):

And for final  – a short theory for discussion. 🙂 Few days ago in Bondora fellows group on Facebook I found a post from young  startup. They speak about “…a peer to peer mobile application which will provide a platform to facilitate microlending”. I told that idea of p2p microfinancing is died and proposed them to look for better ideas. And I wonder that nobody replied or was willing to discuss.  I was so stupid, strict in wording and unpolite? Or today everibody agrees with what I said? 🙂

Thank you for your comments!

p.s. Just now I noticed that JAM collection purchased several defaulted loans. Nice work – I think next month results will get an positive impact!

3
0

7 thoughts on “Portfolio Overview: April 2016 (#5)”

  1. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and progress! As you know I mostly agree with you re Bondora and I have been withdrawing for the last 6 months. I now invest mainly through Mintos and Twino. Both provide around 12% return and both have buy back guarantee which provides a stable and predictable return.

    Shot me an email if you want to discuss!

    Br,
    Karl / Populuscapital

  2. hi, thank you for sharing your experience.
    i was happy inestor at isepankur now bondora but in 2015 i completely stopped reinvesting and now only withdraw. i do not like all the changes bondora was doing & trying to hide the information for investors or making investments more difficult. i did not activated the new portfolio managers.
    now i am moving to mintos as i like their approach much more.

  3. Thank you for comments.

    Mintos is a bit different play. Just to say I went to Mintos is not enough 🙂 It must be followed by name of originator. I.e. I went to Mintos and invest in Mogo etc. Mintos is fine, but main risk is not Mintos, main risk is originator of loan. Some of them are very small or not transparent etc.

  4. Hello Andrj 🙂
    I stumbled over your website and decided to take a look. It’s interesting to read about your experience – thanks for sharing!

    Like you I also tried BTCPOP, but so far I am not very impressed by the quality of the loans they offer, and I also think that their website has too many technical problems for my comfort (maybe a bit TOO innovative ;-). Most of my investing has been with BTCJam, but I am reducing my activity there right now, partially because I want to see what happens after they leave the U.S.A., and partially because I am expecting a lot of volatility when the bitcoin mining reward halves this June.

    Interesting to read that you use XIRR as an investment tool, though I must admit that I don’t completely understand how projected return helps you to make better investments(?). My method is to track past performance, keep an investment log, and use both to continually evaluate and modify my investment strategy (what went right or wrong and why). So far the most important lesson I have learned is that the first rule to winning is not to lose 😛

    Thanks again for sharing, and good luck with your investments!

    1. Glad to see you Kanati!

      I use projected return (future date of return) only in cases where platform not providing me value of outstanding principal. Only in cases where I do not have another way to calculate. As example in FIAT p2p, I never use projected.

      p.s. btw, it looks btcjam start to restore volumes

  5. I agree with you the main risk in Mintos are the originators, do you know some way to get their financial statements free or with a low cost? What do you think about Viventor?

    1. I was not analyzing Viventor. But I see “Earn up to 12% fixed p.a.” on their main page and that not motivating me to look inside. I learned that 12% often becoming 10% and later 8%, so, I skip that site to now

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.